If you’ve seen headlines about Melbourne unit losses, it can sound like the whole property market is going backwards. The reality is more nuanced: most resales still turn a profit, but a few pockets (especially unit-heavy areas) are carrying a bigger share of the pain.
Key message
Most Australian sellers are still making money, but losses are clustering in some Melbourne and Sydney unit markets. Other cities, including Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, remain strongly profit-skewed.
The national picture is still profit-heavy
When “selling at a loss” hits the news cycle, it’s easy to assume values are broadly weakening.
But the big-picture data still leans strongly the other way.
Cotality’s latest Pain & Gain results show 95.9% of resales made a profit in the December quarter, with a median gain of $365,000. That’s the strongest profit result since 2005, which tells us losses are not evenly spread across Australia.
Where losses are clustering
The more useful question isn’t “is Australia up or down?” It’s “which markets and which property types are under pressure?”
Loss-making sales tend to cluster where a few factors overlap, such as:
- A unit-heavy market (especially inner-city)
- Softer local conditions
- Shorter hold times (less time for growth to absorb buying and selling costs)
This is why national averages can feel “wrong” when you’re looking at a specific suburb or property type.
Houses vs units: the split that matters
One clear dividing line is houses versus units.
In the December quarter data, Cotality reported a higher share of profitable resales for houses than units, and noted that loss-making sales were more concentrated in parts of the Sydney and Melbourne unit markets.
Plain English: weaker unit markets are doing more of the heavy lifting on losses, while houses remain more broadly supported.
Hold time: why “how long” can be as important as “where”
Time in the market matters because it gives values more room to rise and helps “dilute” the impact of:
- Stamp duty and purchase costs
- Agent fees and selling costs
- Short-term wobbles in buyer demand
Cotality’s reporting shows profit-making sales typically have a longer median hold period than loss-making sales.
Plain English: if you haven’t held the property long, there’s less buffer if the market goes quiet or your segment underperforms.
The contrast markets: Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide
If you want a reality check on the “everyone is selling at a loss” storyline, the best place to look is the cities that remain strongly profit-skewed.
Domain’s latest Profit and Loss reporting highlights that:
- Brisbane and Perth lead on the breadth of profitability
- Sydney still leads on the size of typical gains for houses
- Adelaide also remains very profit-heavy
That doesn’t mean every property in those cities is a winner. It means losses are more localised than the headlines suggest.
Why timing can shift even when the long-term story hasn’t changed
Even when long-term fundamentals are okay, short-term confidence can wobble.
Recent RBA commentary has noted that a prolonged Middle East conflict could affect growth and inflation expectations (often via energy prices), which can flow into sentiment.
And in softer markets, buyers can gain negotiating power. For example, recent reporting has suggested a large share of Melbourne homes have been selling below asking price, which can pressure sellers who need to move quickly.
This doesn’t automatically mean widespread losses. It does mean your outcome can depend heavily on timing, urgency, and the specific segment you’re in.
Practical takeaway: pressure-test your exposure
Instead of asking “is the market up or down?”, ask:
- What type of property am I holding (house or unit)?
- How long am I likely to hold it?
- Is my local market driven by owner-occupiers, investors, or both?
- If I had to sell earlier than planned, how exposed would I be?
- If confidence dips for a while, do I have the cash buffer to ride it out?
That’s usually where the real risk (or comfort) sits.
Want to sense-check your position?
If you’re unsure whether your property (or your next purchase) is sitting in a “safer” segment or a softer pocket, a quick strategy check can help. We can look at hold time, costs, loan structure, and your plan B if the market takes longer than expected.
