Spring has now sprung and August has been another busy month with lots of updates for you.
Here are the articles we have curated for you:
- Best interest rates: Sep snapshot + monthly moves
- Offset not offsetting? Make sure you are getting the full benefit
- Borrowing is ticking up — your checklist to make it work for you
- More lender choice? The “proportional regulation” pivot to help borrowers
- 2025 outlook: Units set the pace (at last)
- August rate cut: four groups who can take the initiative
- Buyers: Off-market buys — beat the crowd
- Vendors: Price it right — choose truth, not hype
- SMSF & property — understanding the rules, risks, rewards
- Car-loan mistakes: eight traps to avoid
- AI in services — humans + machines win out
- Renewables spotlight — Fortescue’s “real zero” push vs farm-solar friction
- Post-solstice light is ahead of temperature increases – find out why
Read more below.
But first, a small request....
There is no doubt that our newsletter is packed full of goodies – but this also makes it a tad long. We could shorten it but that would mean cutting out a lot of the good stuff we come across each month. However, when my good friend ChatGPT suggested a different approach, it got me thinking:
Are we offering our readers the best solution for them?
Because we love to be client-focused, I thought, what better solution than to ask you, our lovely reader who opens the email, what you think. Now, almost 40% of our subscribers open our email, which is, apparently, pretty good. But that doesn’t mean we couldn’t do better.
So, we have set up a 1-question survey (full disclosure: there are also 3 non-mandatory questions you can answer if you wish).
If you could help us out, just click the link below and take a minute to give us what you think of the options – or, offer your own solution!
Best Interest Rates
An at-a-glance view of the sharpest advertised rates
from our panel of over 60 lenders.
Quick observations
- All rates broadly reflect the RBA cash rate cut, with Fixed Rates decreasing at higher levels (possibly pricing in future variable rate cuts)
- Clean-energy pricing (where offered) is typically ~0.20–0.35pp lower than the standard rate (OO P&I var: -0.31pp; inv P&I var: -0.35pp).
- IO options in this list don’t show clean-energy pricing (n/a).
- Fixed 2-year P&I rates (owner-occ and investor) are below their variable counterparts in this snapshot.
Notes:
- This table shows advertised rates only. Comparison rates are not shown, and fees/features (e.g., offset, redraw, package/annual fees) aren’t reflected. Your effective cost may differ.
- Pricing assumes ≤60% LVR; other LVRs can price differently.
- Clean-energy/“green” pricing usually requires eligibility (e.g., energy-efficient home or approved upgrades) and may have extra conditions.
- General information only — no product or lender recommendations.
Reply “RATES“ if you would like an estimate of your best rates for your current or proposed loan.
Offset not offsetting? Check your interest!
If your bank isn’t netting your offset balance correctly each day,
you could be overpaying interest —
and your principal may be higher than it should be.
How an offset should work:
- Daily interest on the net amount: Interest = (loan balance – offset balance) × (rate ÷ 365), added up for the month.
- Everyday money, real savings: Cash sitting in offset lowers the interest charged without locking your money away.
What can go wrong:
- Linking/setup errors: Offset not linked to the right loan or split.
- Timing lags: Interest calculated before deposits show as cleared that day.
- Partial-offset misunderstandings: Some accounts only offset part of the balance or have conditions.
- System/config mistakes: Back-end errors when loans are restructured or refixed.
Signs to look for:
- Linking/setup errors: Offset not linked to the right loan or split.
- Timing lags: Interest calculated before deposits show as cleared that day.
- Partial-offset misunderstandings: Some accounts only offset part of the balance or have conditions.
- System/config mistakes: Back-end errors when loans are restructured or refixed.
Quick self-check:
- Export last 12 months of loan statements (with interest debits) and offset transactions; compare interest charged vs what you’d expect from (loan – offset) × rate ÷ 365.
- If there’s a gap: Start with your bank’s complaints/IDR team. If unresolved, you can go to AFCA (free).
- Next step: I’ll send you a simple CSV checklist and explain our optional Offset Check (a factual calculation review).
Reply “Offset” for our CSV checklist.
Borrowing is ticking up, make it work for you
More lending = sharper pricing – if you’re prepared.
A clean file can mean lower repayments or better features.
ABS shows there were 129,994 new home-loan commitments in the June quarter, a rise of 1.9% in the June quarter 2025 compared to March 2025, with investor lending up 3.5% q/q and owner-occupier up 0.9% q/q; first-home buyer activity also ticked higher. In short, more buyers are active again.
Refinancing remains elevated, and with the RBA cutting in August (cash rate now 3.6%), the direction is easier even if the pace of future cuts is data-dependent (July CPI blipped higher on electricity, so markets lean to November for the next move).
Your 5-step prep checklist (plain English):
#1 Set a budget + buffer
Know your weekly limit and keep 3–6 months of repayments as a safety net.
#2 Check your credit report
Get a free report and fix errors (old addresses, closed cards still showing) - we organise this for you when we start your loan application process.
#3 Choose the right features
An offset account helps cut interest by using your savings, a redraw facility lets you access extra repayments, and loan portability allows you to transfer your loan when moving to a new property.
#4 Count the true cost
Don’t just look at the rate — include application, annual/package, valuation and settlement fees. When we show you the numbers, we look at the cost for the first two years - so you can make a realistic comparison.
#5 Broker short-list
I’ll match lenders to your profile (income type, deposit/LVR, property type, goals) and narrow to the sharp options. - using our Two Year time horizon strategy.
Reply “Rates” for a comparison or
Market and policy pulse — more lender choice
More genuine choices could be coming
good for borrowers, especially beyond the Big Four.
As a broker who values my client’s money, anything that improves the ability for lender competition has to be a good thing.
Background
After years of one-size-fits-all rules that improved safety but increased fixed compliance costs, the Commonwealth is shifting to proportional regulation, allowing smaller lenders to compete without weakening protections. You may recall that the post-Royal Commission reforms (2019–23) introduced additional conduct, reporting, and resilience requirements. This tightening of the regulations hit the smaller ADIs (Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions) the hardest.
In 2024–25, with home-loan competition a priority, Treasury, APRA, and ASIC are scaling templates, transition windows and supervisory intensity by size/complexity—lighter admin, not lighter safety.
Takeaways
- Canberra’s review backs “proportional regulation,” allowing smaller banks to face simpler, lighter administrative requirements (with safeguards).
- *** Customer-owned/non-majors say this will let them price sharper and innovate faster — helpful for niche borrower needs.
- Brokers drive switching, which in turn lifts competition; however, segments with fewer broker interactions will remain less competitive.
- Timing: changes need regulator implementation, so benefits build over time, not overnight.
Risk & safeguards
- This is not deregulation: “Proportional” means same core prudential rules (capital, liquidity, risk controls), just scaled paperwork, not lower standards.
- APRA still supervises: Smaller ADIs remain under APRA oversight and must meet ongoing prudential tests.
- Consumer protections stay: Credit laws, hardship/help obligations, IDR/AFCA complaint rights, and disclosure rules still apply.
- Deposits protected: The Financial Claims Scheme (government guarantee) covers eligible deposits up to $250,000 per customer per ADI.
- Real-world takeaway: The bigger risk for borrowers is usually a poorly matched product or policy, not bank failure — a broker comparison helps fit the loan to your situation.
2025 outlook: Unit set the pace
If unit prices run,
being finance-ready helps you secure your property
without blowing the budget.
- KPMG’s latest outlook has apartments outpacing houses over 2025–26 (units +4.5% in 2025, +5.1% in 2026), driven by affordability and supply constraints.
- Convergence: 2025 has seen narrower gaps in price growth across capitals; national +3.2% in six months, with Sydney/Melbourne improving as smaller capitals cool from hot levels.
- Investor momentum: Investor loans are near decade-highs in most states; Victoria is the exception (more investor selling, slower investor buying).
- Outlook: Expected rate cuts later in 2025 support prices, but affordability caps keep the focus on attached stock and realistic budgets.
Practical setup to buy:
- Lock-in your pre-approval before listings rise (early September onwards)
- Stress-test repayments at +2–3% for buffer, and plan strata/maintenance in your cash-flow (offset helps) – we can provide you with all this info as part of your initial Discovery Call.
Already own a place? A small rate shave or switching some repayments to IO (if suitable) can improve search-period cash-flow while you hunt.
KPMG’s report notes that while momentum is building, housing affordability remains a key constraint. With prices continuing to outpace income, many households may increasingly turn to apartments, townhouses and units as a way of entering the property market.
Contact me if you’d like to discuss what these forecasts could mean for your property plans or borrowing strategy.
August 2025 rate cut: Who can move now?
Even a small rate cut can lift borrowing power and trim repayments
handy if you’re buying or refi-ready.
The RBA cash rate cut in August 2025 has signalled that more easing is likely over the next year, but the pace depends on the data. Translation: conditions are improving, yet uneven.
What the August rate cut means
#1 First-home buyers:
Your borrowing capacity may increase slightly. To stay close to transport hubs or schools without overspending, consider units or townhouses—often more affordable than houses in the same area.
#2 Homeowners on Principal & Interest (P&I):
Ask your bank to re-price (give you a better rate). If they won’t, we’ll check a refi but only recommend it if the savings beat the costs (application/settlement fees, etc.).
#3 Investors (IO vs PI):
With costs easing, re-check Interest-Only vs Principal & Interest. IO can improve monthly cash flow; PI reduces debt faster. We’ll run the numbers based on your hold strategy and tax position.
#4 Feeling the pinch:
Use any savings to rebuild your emergency buffer first. If debts are messy, we can simplify/consolidate—but only when it lowers the total cost (not just the monthly payment).
Reality check:
Not every lender passes a cut in full or straight away. Don’t rely on headlines— check your actual rate in your banking app/statement. If it hasn’t moved (or not enough), we’ll push for a re-price or compare alternatives.
State tip: VIC/NSW/QLD auctions: Obtain written pre-approval and establish a clear maximum bid (including stamp duty and other costs). Being finance-ready helps you bid with confidence and walk away if prices run high.
Regardless of your position
ensure that your home loan remains competitive.
To ensure you’re getting a great deal in today’s market, contact me for a personalised review of your loan.
Off-market buys beat the crowd
Not every great home is online.
Off-market sales can widen your options and reduce bidding pressure
if you know the traps.
Attribution: This article was prepared using insights from Mary Maatouk, Founder & Principal Advocate at Maatouk Property Advocates, drawing on current industry practice across Australia.
What “off-market” actually means
A property sold privately without public ads or open homes. You might also hear “pre-market” (a short, quiet window before a full campaign).
Why sellers choose it
- Privacy & discretion: Sensitive situations (family, high profile, tenants in place).
- Speed & certainty: One clean offer can beat weeks of opens.
- Lower hassle/cost: Less staging, fewer opens, reduced disruption.
When you’ll see it
- Agent networks quietly matching ready buyers to upcoming listings.
- Buyer advocates’ databases flagging owner interest before a campaign.
- Direct approaches (letters/door-knocks) in tightly held streets.
- “Test the waters”: some vendors try a quiet price to set expectations.
Benefits for buyers
- Less competition and fewer bidding theatrics.
- More time to think and negotiate terms (deposit, settlement, rent-back).
- Access to homes that may never hit a portal.
Trade-offs and traps
- Price opacity: Fewer public comps = easier to overpay.
- Limited feedback loop: No open-for-inspection crowd to test price.
- Rushed due diligence: Without a campaign timetable, checks can get squeezed.
- Not always cheaper: “Off-market” can be used to anchor a high price before going public.
How to value an off-market property
- Pull recent, like-for-like sales (same pocket, size, land, condition, orientation).
- Sense-check land value vs. improvement value (what’s the dirt worth; what’s the dwelling worth).
- Compare time-on-market norms — a long, quiet campaign can flag a mismatch on price.
- Ask the agent for their comparables and why they’re relevant.
Due diligence checklist
- Contract & title review by your conveyancer/solicitor.
- Building/pest (or strata/builder’s report for apartments).
- Zoning/overlays & easements; owners’ corporation rules and levies if applicable.
- Services & compliance (smoke alarms, pools/spas where relevant).
- Finance guardrails: written pre-approval and a clear max price before you negotiate.
- Note on cooling-off: Rules differ by state/territory and by sale method. Ask your conveyancer before you sign anything.
Red flags
- No recent comparables provided or weak ones from other suburbs.
- Pressure to sign without access for inspections or contract review.
- Unusual special conditions (or requests to waive cooling-off) you don’t understand.
An off-market worth pursuing usually has:
- A clear reason to be off-market
- Price anchored to solid, recent sales
- Full access for due diligence
- Terms that make sense for both sides.
Vendors: Price it right, choose truth, not hype
The fastest way to lose money is to overprice on day one.
The safest way to make money is a truthful price guide
backed by recent sales and a clear plan.
Insights with thanks to Kathryn Fantov, Sydney Vendor Advocates.
What often goes wrong:
- Chasing your number: Some agents ask your hoped-for price, then agree—because they want the listing.
- Days on market blow out: Overpriced homes attract fewer buyers; interest goes stale; discounts follow.
- Final price suffers: Properties that sit too long often sell for less than well-priced ones launched the same week.
- Signal vs noise: A “Just Listed” post helps the agent’s profile, not your result.
What a great agent actually does:
- Evidence first: Brings like-for-like comparables (same pocket, land size, condition, orientation, recent settlement dates).
- Explains the “why”: Walks you through land value vs improvement value, buyer segments, and likely objections.
- Sets strategy: Recommends method (auction/private sale/EOI), launch timing, target buyer profile, and Plan B if enquiry is soft.
- Price discipline: A realistic guide that invites competition—not a fantasy that kills it.
Your appraisal checklist (use this at the meeting):
- “Show me the three most comparable sales in the last 60–90 days—and why they’re comparable.”
- “What buyer segments will compete for my home, and what will they push back on?”
- “Auction or private sale—why for my property, and what’s Plan B in week two?”
- “What’s your launch calendar (photos, copy, opens) and what happens if enquiry is slow?”
- “How will you qualify buyers (finance ready, timelines) before we negotiate?”
- “What price-setting risks do you see (e.g., over-capitalised improvements, busy road, layout)? Be blunt.”
How to sense-check the price guide:
- Insist on recent nearby sales (not cherry-picked from other suburbs or last year).
- Request a written rationale (land vs. dwelling, renovation premium, orientation, parking).
- Keep guardrails clear: low, mid and stretch outcomes, each tied to actual comparable sales data.
- If the guide moves, ask: What changed? (new comp, inspection feedback, building report).
Red flags (walk away if you see these):
- Vague comparisons or no settlement dates.
- Pressure to sign before your conveyancer checks the contract of sale/agency agreement.
- “We’ll try your price for a few weeks” with no data or fallback plan.
Why this approach works:
- Industry data consistently shows that well-priced listings attract more inspections and multiple offers early—when buyer urgency is highest.
- Over-pricing burns that window and usually costs more later.
State tip: Pricing/underquoting rules vary by state. Ask your conveyancer about local rules on comparable sales and price guides before launch.
Reply “Agent” if you’d like a simple one-page Agent Interview Checklist you can print and take to appraisals.
SMSF and Property: Rules, risks, rewards
An SMSF can own property and access tax concessions
but the rules are strict
and getting them wrong is costly.
Insights from Tuan Duong, Duo Tax, article: Investing in a Self-Managed Super Fund Property
Key points:
- What an SMSF is: A Self Managed Super Fund – i.e a super fund you manage. Many use it for more control; earnings are generally taxed at 15% in accumulation whilst pension-phase income can be tax-free.
- Holding an investment property in an SMSF can mean lower tax on rent and gains — usually 15% on earnings, 10% on gains after 12 months, and possibly 0% in pension phase (subject to caps) — compared with owning it personally, via a trust, or a company.
Core rules for an SMSF:
- Sole purpose test: investments must be for retirement benefits only
- Arm’s length: market value, commercial terms.
- Residential use: no living in it yourself and no renting to related parties.
- In-house assets: related-party exposures are capped (capped at 5% of fund value at 30 June).
If you are borrowing to buy property via an SMSF:
- Only via an LRBA: An SMSF may only borrow using a Limited Recourse Borrowing Arrangement.
- Holding (bare) trust: The property is held in a separate holding/bare trust with a different trustee. The SMSF is the beneficial owner; legal title sits with the holding trustee until the loan is repaid.
- Limited recourse: The lender’s rights are limited to the acquired property and its income under the LRBA. (Note: typically, lenders will also require personal guarantees from all the members — that adds personal risk for the members).
- One asset per LRBA: Each LRBA must fund a single acquirable asset (e.g., one property) or a bundle of identical assets. There are ‘exception circumstances’, but get legal advice to see if your situation would qualify (eg when a building straddles two titles). The ATO says you may treat it as a single asset where there’s a unifying physical object (permanent, significant fixture) or a legal requirement to keep the titles together.
- Typical gearing: Up to ~80% LVR on residential is common (lenders vary). Commercial is often lower (≈60–70%). You’ll need ≥20% deposit + stamp duty + costs, plus in most cases, a liquidity buffer left in the fund.
- Paperwork-heavy & regulated: Expect detailed documents and exact naming: SMSF deed allowing LRBAs, holding/bare trust deed, loan agreement, correct purchaser on the contract, trustee resolutions, arm’s-length terms, annual audit.
- Repairs vs improvements (important): You can repair and maintain the property under the LRBA; however, major improvements that change the asset’s character are not permitted under the same LRBA
Commercial property nuance:
- Your SMSF can buy “business real property” and lease it to your own business — but at market rent and on commercial terms.
Tax & depreciation:
- Hold >12 months and capital gains may receive the one-third CGT discount (effective 10% in accumulation).
- Claim depreciation (capital works, plant & equipment) using a quantity surveyor’s schedule.
Trade-offs:
- Complexity, setup/admin costs, and ongoing audit/reporting obligations.
- Treat this as a retirement strategy first, not a tax shortcut.
- Use a qualified financial planner to assist you – it costs but they will ensure compliance so you don’t get caught out.
Stamp Duty and Contracts:
- Stamp duty can be complex, and the rate and requirements vary significantly by State.
- Ask your conveyancer to check every t is crossed and i is dotted.
Practical tips:
- Contract of Sale: The bare trust trustee (not the SMSF trustee) is the Purchaser on the contract of sale (and execute the bare/holding trust deed correctly).
- Audit trail: Keep a clean paper trail (contract, duty-stamped instruments, trust deeds, lender letters).
- Before settlement: (and again before the end transfer to the SMSF trustee – typically when the loan has been repaid), ask your conveyancer to confirm the correct exemption section and lodgement deadline for your State. Do this correctly and on time, and you can qualify for nominal/exempt stamp duty.
- Set up your SMSF: well before you want to invest. Getting money transferred from an industry fund takes a few weeks at best, and getting an SMSF set up is quick once you have given clear instructions, but the timeline and process with your financial planner and accountant needs to be taken into account.
- Set up your bare trust: in advance of your proposed purchase. Whilst you don’t need to set this up when you set up your SMSF, you do need your bare trust ‘ready to go’ when you go to buy. Otherwise, if you sign the documents in the name of the wrong entity, the strict rules surrounding super funds may result in additional costs (one lender I spoke to mentioned that a client had to pay stamp duty twice because they listed the wrong entity on the contract of sale).
Common mistakes:
- Wrong names on forms (e.g., using the fund name instead of the SMSF trustee’s legal name).
- Late stamping (penalties/interest can apply if you miss deadlines).
- Beneficial ownership changes (e.g., trustee changes not documented correctly) can jeopardise duty relief.
- Deed misalignments (SMSF deed/holding trust deed must support LRBA and vesting steps).
When the loan is repaid: You don’t have to vest the property into the name of the SMSF trust immediately after payout of the loan in all cases, but leaving the property sitting indefinitely with the holding trustee can complicate future changes. Most financial planners and advisers complete the end transfer soon after discharge so the paperwork is clean.
“Do the paperwork like an auditor will read it tomorrow
— because they will.”
Reply “SMSF” for a one-page checklist (rules, LRBA basics, adviser questions).
Car loan mistakes: How to avoid them?
Set the finance right
and you’ll pay less over the life of the car.
Buying a car is exciting, but rushing in without your finance in place can be costly.
Eight common traps
- Chasing a tiny monthly payment: Whilst good for showing servicing of other loans, longer terms can cost thousands more overall.
- Ignoring the comparison rate: It bakes in most fees — a better guide than the headline rate.
- Assuming dealer finance is cheapest: It’s convenient, sure, but not always the best total cost.
- Rolling extras into the loan: Paint protection, gap cover, add-ons = interest on extras you may not need.
- Skipping pre-approval: You lose leverage and can’t compare like-for-like at the dealership.
- Missing balloon/residual fine print: A low monthly payment now can mean a big lump sum later.
- Not checking early-payout fees: These can sting if you upgrade/sell early.
- Forgetting on-roads & running costs: Include stamp duty, rego, CTP/insurance, servicing, fuel/tolls in your budget.
Moneysmart tip: Shop around before you visit the yard. A better mix of rate + fees can save thousands over the term.
What to do instead:
- Get pre-approval and at least one non-dealer quote.
- Compare total cost (comparison rate + fees), not just the monthly.
- Decide upfront on extras — and don’t finance what you don’t need.
Reply “Car” for a quick compare, or add it to your 30-min Refi Check and we’ll model the smartest path.
AI in services: Humans + machines win
You get faster answers, clearer options and fewer errors
when firms use AI well
(with a human still making the call).
This was shown to me by a good friend and former Rugby League great, Paul Dunn (a legend of the game). Since he hung up his boots, Paul has worked in the business consulting space. His business is called Belief First
The big idea
- Early advantage: Some firms quietly use AI to deliver the same output at far lower cost, keeping the margin. That won’t last—others catch up and prices compress. (Cunningham’s “Phase 1→2”.)
- Do-it-yourself shift: As tools get easier, more companies insource routine work unless a firm adds extra value (judgment, change management, implementation). (Cunningham’s “Phase 3→4”.)
- Network effects: Firms (or niche solos) that learn across many clients build a flywheel and pull ahead. (Cunningham’s “Phase 5”.)
Update from Axios
Here is another take from Axios, a news media company known for providing information on technology, media, business, and politics, to help people understand important topics quickly and efficiently. This was written up in the following article: AI is changing the world faster than most realise
- Change is faster than most expect — tech leaders say the next few years could be wildly different; some predict big hits to entry-level white-collar roles in 1–5 years.
- Workplaces are already using AI for hiring and performance decisions; AI may manage more people as middle-management tasks get automated.
- Schools are scrambling: Generative AI has fueled cheating concerns, but students still need to learn safe and effective use before they graduate.
- Reality check: Not everyone agrees on the timeline (some experts argue that systems remain sub-human in areas of common sense), and CEOs can always have a vested interest — so maintain a balanced view.
- Upside: If we get this right, productivity and prosperity can benefit the broader population.
How to choose AI consultant providers (three quick questions):
- How do you use AI? (faster research/drafts/comparisons)
- How do you check it? (human review, fact-checks, audit trail)
- Where’s my data stored? (privacy and security basics)
Tip for business owners:
Use AI to kill the boring work now, but invest the savings in unique capability (process, niche IP, data standards) — that’s how you avoid the race-to-the-bottom.
Take this newsletter, for example. The images are produced from AI, and AI creates the stories from a myriad of sources and packages the data so it all makes sense (and the spelling and grammar too – hopefully!). If I were to do it all of this newsletter myself, I would be like a painter on the Harbour Bridge – I would just about finish one and then have to start the next!
Reply “AI” and I’ll send a simple one-pager to help you use AI day-to-day — fast, safe, effective.
Renewables at scale: Big miners lean in
Large miners are accelerating solar, wind and batteries
to cut costs and diesel use.
Renew economy: Fortescue’s rapid push to net-zero
Takeaways:
- Tech costs for solar, wind, and batteries continue to decline; major operators are electrifying sites to reduce fuel risk.
- Building on-site generation + storage + transmission improves cost control and reliability.
- Early movers are demonstrating that decarbonising heavy industry is both commercially viable and beneficial for the environment.
What this means (households/business): Expect faster adoption and cheaper kit over time; businesses should review energy loads, tariffs and storage options to lock in savings.
Grid rules, real hurdles: Farm solar
Farm solar often can’t be shared across titles/meters,
with bureaucracy blunting returns
making renewable adoption unnecessarily difficult.
Article from Renew Economy: Farms on historic titles suffer bizarrely
Takeaways
- Many farms can’t share solar across multiple titles/meters, even on the same property!
- Result: buying power is dear at one meter while exporting is cheap a few paddocks away.
- Industry is pushing for rule tweaks to recognise short-distance transfers and storage.
What this means for households and businesses
- Policy and metering settings matter – particularly the irrational, nonsensical bureaucratic ones!
- Before investing check the connection type, export limits, and tariff options. Multi-site businesses should assess embedded networks/private wires/storage to capture more value.
Why the cold peaks weeks after 21 June?
The shortest day doesn’t equal the coldest day
The seasonal temperature lag kicks in each winter and summer
Well, we are now officially in Spring, but did you know…
Whilst 21 June is our winter solstice, with the shortest day and lowest sun angle, our coldest days can be some weeks later – particularly if you are in a coastal town.
Why is it so? It’s a case of ‘thermal inertia’ – the land, ocean, and air take different amounts of time to cool/heat (air: quickest, land: second quickest and ocean: the slowest), so the chilliest stretch for those living in coastal locations usually arrives weeks after the solstice. The lag is bigger for those living on the coast as the ocean stores and releases heat more slowly than land.
Now, the reason we get a ‘shortest’ day (winter solstice) and a ‘longest’ day (summer solstice 22 Dec) – and seasonal temperatures is because of the earth’s tilt on its axis (~23.4° relative to its orbit) so we are closer or further away from the sun at different stages of the earth’s orbit.
In short: no tilt, no seasons and 12 hours of sunlight each day. But…. because the earth’s orbit is more of an oval than a circle, there is a small impact on the sun’s strength – between summer and winter – about 7% variation.
To finish this off…. There would still be weather patterns with no tilt because of the latitude, and local ups and downs caused by the winds, oceans and terrain – but not the large seasonal variations we currently experience.
Three Aussie examples
- Coastal (e.g., Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Perth): The ocean stores and slowly releases heat, so the lag is larger and winters feel milder but longer. Cold often peaks 3–6 weeks after 21 June.
- Inland & higher areas (e.g., Canberra, Ballarat, Alice Springs): Land responds faster, skies are clearer, so the lag is smaller with sharper frosts and bigger day–night swings—often 1–3 weeks after 21 June.
- Tropics (north): Dry‐season coolness is modest; lag is subtle.
What this means for you
- Home & investment: Book heater servicing, draught-proofing and insulation checks before July.
- Energy bills: Unless you have solar and batteries, expect the priciest winter weeks after the solstice – budget accordingly.
- Auctions & travel: Cool snaps linger near the coast; inland frosts bite earlier.
